As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the potential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is drawing significant attention. While much of the focus is on domestic policies, the outcome of this election could also have profound implications for the automotive industry in Southeast Asia.

Trade Policies and Tariffs

One of the most immediate impacts of a Trump vs. Harris election on Southeast Asia's automotive industry would stem from trade policies and tariffs. During his presidency, Trump imposed a series of tariffs that affected global trade, including the automotive sector. These tariffs increased the cost of imported automotive parts and vehicles, disrupting supply chains and raising prices for consumers.

If Trump were to return to the White House, there is a strong possibility that he would reinstate or even expand these tariffs, potentially leading to higher costs for Southeast Asian automakers that rely on exporting vehicles and parts to the U.S. market. This could force companies to rethink their supply chain strategies and possibly shift production to avoid tariffs, impacting the regional automotive landscape.

Conversely, Kamala Harris is expected to continue the Biden administration's approach, which has been more focused on targeted tariffs and fostering international trade relations. Harris has criticized blanket tariffs and has shown a preference for trade policies that support both American workers and international partners. This could mean a more stable and predictable trade environment for Southeast Asian automakers, allowing them to plan and invest with greater confidence.

Electric Vehicle (EV) Transition

Another critical area of impact is the transition to electric vehicles (EVs). The Biden administration, with Harris as Vice President, has strongly supported the shift towards EVs through various incentives and regulatory measures. Harris is likely to continue these policies, pushing for more stringent emissions standards and greater support for EV infrastructure.

For Southeast Asian countries, which are increasingly becoming hubs for EV manufacturing, a Harris presidency could be beneficial. It would likely mean continued U.S. support for global EV initiatives, potentially leading to increased investment in Southeast Asia's EV sector. Countries like Thailand and Indonesia, which are positioning themselves as key players in the EV market, could see accelerated growth and more opportunities for collaboration with U.S. companies.

On the other hand, a Trump presidency could slow down the global EV transition. Trump has historically supported fossil fuels and rolled back environmental regulations, which could reduce the momentum for EV adoption. This might lead to a more fragmented global market, with Southeast Asian automakers needing to navigate varying regulatory environments.

Investment and Economic Stability

The broader economic policies of Trump and Harris could also influence investment flows into Southeast Asia. Harris's policies are expected to be more aligned with the current administration's focus on economic stability, green energy, and international cooperation. This could create a favorable environment for foreign direct investment (FDI) in Southeast Asia's automotive sector, particularly in green technologies and sustainable manufacturing practices.

In contrast, Trump's economic policies, characterized by protectionism and unilateral trade actions, could introduce more volatility and uncertainty. This might deter investors and complicate long-term planning for Southeast Asian automotive companies.

Conclusion

The outcome of the Trump vs. Harris election will undoubtedly have significant implications for the automotive industry in Southeast Asia. Harris's potential presidency promises a continuation of supportive trade policies, a strong push towards EVs, and a stable investment climate. In contrast, a Trump presidency could reintroduce trade barriers, slow the EV transition, and create economic uncertainties.

Southeast Asian automakers and policymakers will need to closely monitor the developments in the U.S. election, as the resulting policies will shape the region's automotive industry's future trajectory.